Pro Football Betting Line

26/01/08

Tom Coughlin, Bill Belichick dance around questions we want answered

Thursday, December 27th 2007, 4:00 AM

This is the last home game for the Giants - unless the two wild cards somehow reach the NFC Championship Game; try not to hold your breath - and the pressure on the media on Wednesday was brutal. There were more TV cameras, microphones and digital recorders in the locker room than you see in the P.C. Richard ads. And they all came to ask the same two-part question.

On the show that ends with almost nobody winning a million dollars, these questions would be worth about 50 cents: Will Tom Coughlin rest his important players, his semi-injured, and give them a week off before the playoffs begin? Or do the Giants go full throttle Saturday night and try to shoot for a line in the history books, the team that became the stone wall that kept the 15-0 Patriots from being the league's only 16-0 team?

The answer, at this point, is a definite maybe.

No matter how they play it, the Giants would need a small miracle (and no wind) to come close to giving the Patriots a hard time. Isn't it enough they don't need a win Saturday, a line too many thought they'd never read. After finishing the first half of the season an admirable 6-2, they began losing and winning and losing and winning and ... you get the idea. They're 10-5 now, the NFC's No.1 wild card, and they got there, huffing and puffing, last Sunday at Buffalo.

Now the target is New England, one win away from making pro football history. Not bad, huh? Can there be any doubt that Bill Belichick, the Pats' ruthless coach, will use his best bodies until the Giants are down and out? No, of course not. But you shouldn't expect this coach to do the expected. Not after he played I Spy against the Jets the first week of the season. The only surprise in that one was that he got caught. Win or lose against the Giants, his team gets a bye the first week of the playoffs. But he's probably lined up a game of two-hand touch that day with the WWE Elephants. And this is how worried he is about the Giants: the Pats didn't bother to practice yesterday.

Belichick was asked how important, how dandy, 16-0 would be and you could hear his attempt to shrug on the telephone connection. "Right now we don't think too much about the record," he said. "We just want to be 1-0 this week, that's all."

The betting line says they will, and by plenty. The Pats are 14-point favorites - a huge number against a home team already in the playoffs - and why not? They're No.1 in offense, No.4 in defense, and Tom Brady has 48 TD passes, two less than the single-season record. He won't be coming out of the game until he reaches the desired number. Then again, that may take no time at all.

On the other side, Eli Manning, with 19, hasn't thrown for more than one score in a game since Oct.21. And his most recent numbers are his sickest. Against Buffalo, in the closest thing to a must-win game, he completed seven of 15 for 111 yards, added five fumbles and two interceptions. The Giants won it with three Manning-less touchdowns in the fourth quarter - two interceptions that became 14 points and an 88-yard gallop by Ahmad Bradshaw. A better showing this Saturday, against the league's perfectos, might revive him.

The way Coughlin sounded yesterday - unless he wanted to send a confusing message to Belichick - he expects to play his best bodies for the entire game. It's the company line and Manning is marching in step.

"Right now," he said, he's planning on playing the entire game. "I'm preparing just as hard as last week," he said, reminding us that was a game they had to win. "We haven't been as sharp as we need to be. We're of a mindset we want to improve our game ... play well ... it's an opportunity to play better ... don't make mistakes ... move the ball ... put points on the board ... ."

And if they don't, they don't. This is not, remember, one of those pesky must-win games.

vziegel@nydailynews.com

30/12/07

Drama, intrigue, glamour: Pro sports' best league has all that - and more

By Tom Robinson

The Virginian-Pilot

December 29, 2007

Nothing fuels this nation's sports fixation like the weekly drama of the NFL. It dwarfs the image of Roger Clemens allegedly dropping his drawers for steroids injections. Overwhelms the feel-good fuzziness of Big Papi and the World Series champion Boston Red Sox. Envelopes debate on the competitive decline of Shaquille O'Neal or the NBA fate of Kobe Bryant in a big blanket of who cares.

The NFL is where the country's at, notwithstanding the league's corporate wrappings and its quest for parity that critics say produces more safe, derivative play than it ought to. Every popularity poll shows it doesn't seem to matter.

From the so-far perfect New England Patriots, to the moribund 1-14 Miami Dolphins, to the odd Jessica Simpson/Tony Romo Dallas brouhaha, the regular season that wraps up this weekend has only added more teeth to America's top sports dog.

Sorry, Atlanta Falcons fans. Bad analogy choice.

Then again, this is the season that began with a star quarterback, Michael Vick of Newport News, on league suspension for his role in a dogfighting ring. Vick eventually pleaded guilty in federal court to conspiracy charges, entered custody early and was last seen in prison stripes, being sentenced to 23 months behind bars.

It's the season that stunned the Washington Redskins beyond words, and somehow still could become their triumphant stage. Pro Bowl safety Sean Taylor was murdered in his Miami-area home in late November, a tragedy that befell an already reeling team that soon foundered to a 5-7 record.

Ignorance of a basic rule by Hall of Fame coach Joe Gibbs helped doom one game, hastening whispers about Gibbs' fit in the modern game. Starting quarterback Jason Campbell was lost to a leg injury, accelerating reports of the Redskins' demise.

And yet, one improbable three-game winning streak later, the Redskins will make the playoffs if they beat the hated Dallas Cowboys at home Sunday.

Usually, the feeling is mutual, but the 'Boys couldn't care less about this one. Win or lose, they are playoff-bound as the top seed in the NFC. With postseason life in the balance, it's left to the Redskins to muster Sunday's emotion, assuming they have emotion left to muster.

Dallas, however, isn't the only team in a mood to protect its important players for the postseason hunt. The defending Super Bowl champion Indianapolis Colts will use a skeleton crew against the Tennessee Titans, who like the Redskins must win for a playoff berth.

The Pittsburgh Steelers, coached by Newport News native Mike Tomlin in his first year, already have lost top running back Willie Parker and hope to avoid further attrition against the Baltimore Ravens.

And what of the biggest NFL drama going, the 15-0 New England Patriots who have only composed the most dominant, dazzling and, at times, dismissive NFL season in 35 years?

They cheated: glowering, enigmatic coach Bill Belichick was fined a half-million dollars and the Pats lost a first-round draft pick for videotaping the New York Jets' signals in the opener.

They piled on: the Patriots seemingly took pleasure in throttling deflated foes, i.e. their 52-7 romp over the Redskins.

Still, here stands quarterback Tom Brady two touchdown passes from the league record for a season. Ditto receiver Randy Moss, two TD catches from a league mark.

Only the New York Giants tonight can prevent the Patriots from becoming the first team - and the second in history - to run the regular season.

Members of the '72 Miami Dolphins, who went 14-0 in the regular season and 17-0 overall, await the result poised over champagne bottles, ready to toast a New York victory.

But how hard will the banged-up Giants, who can't improve their playoff position, really try to prevent perfection? Preserving the '72 Dolphins historic place isn't the Giants' problem.

For that matter, how centered on the short term can New England afford to be? Any injury to Brady, Moss or another key Patriot that detours the Pats from their fourth Super Bowl title in seven years would scuff the shine right off an otherwise brilliant season.

Not that the Patriots have horded the brilliant, or the inspiring. Green Bay Packers quarterback Brett Favre at 38 surpassed Favre at 28 in completion percentage and passing yards while spearheading the Packers to a playoff berth.

The Minnesota Vikings showcased breathtaking rookie running back Adrian Peterson, who set a league rushing record - 296 yards against the San Diego Chargers - in his eighth game.

And Buffalo Bills tight end Kevin Everett, thought to be paralyzed from a collision in the first game, walked into Buffalo's locker room last week.

It's all part of what Americans consider the best show in pro sports. Seventeen weeks of intrigue, betting lines and intense talk-radio conversation, steaming to its compelling conclusion before yielding to what we consider the best playoffs in pro sports.

Which isn't to ignore college football, which is impossible this time of year anyway. Hunker down and saddle up for 21 bowl games between today and the BCS national championship game Jan. 7.

Are we ready for some football? Any time at all.

18/12/07

Scout.com NFL Power Rankings

By Tom Marino
Lead NFL Analyst, Scout.com
Posted Dec 12, 2007

1. (1) New England - An undefeated regular season is now a foregone conclusion, but playing at home in the harsh New England weather is not necessarily an advantage for this high flying offense -- and is the only thing that could derail the Patriots.

2. (2) Dallas - Good football teams are judged by how they perform with the game on the line and how they perform when playing on the road. The '07 Cowboys have passed both tests with flying colors.

3. (4) Indianapolis - The wounded defending Super Bowl champions are not about to concede anything to the rest of NFL and approach the postseason with one very hot quarterback.

4. (3) Green Bay - Sure, Brett Favre and a very underrated receiving corps have played exceptionally well, but how about the play of little known RB Ryan Grant, solid special teams and a very opportunist defensive unit?

5. (6) Jacksonville - Somebody probably needs to remind 31-year-old RB Fred Taylor (944 yards) that this is a young man's game. David Garrard has been nothing short of sensational since returning from a mid-season ankle injury.

6. (5) Pittsburgh - The Steelers hung in there for about a half with the Patriots on the road, but had few answers when they had to play catch up. Injury to Troy Polamalu was huge and overall the secondary play was suspect.

7. (8) Seattle - The Seahawks left no doubt that they are once again the class of a weak NFC West division. Once again Matt Hasselback, NFL sack leader Patrick Kerney and a very underrated defensive have been the difference.

8. (11) NY Giants - They hardly look pretty doing it, but the 9-4 Giants, led by a very consistent albeit banged-up defensive unit, was the difference versus the Eagles. Plaxico Burress playing on a very tender ankle was this week's offensive leader.

9. (9) Cleveland - This week's matchup on the road versus the Bills might be the most important contest in the Browns' recent playing history. And how about the play of Jamal Lewis this season for the surprising Browns?

10. (10) San Diego - Last week's come-from-behind overtime road victory versus the Titans was absolutely huge. As always, LT (146 rushing yards and 5 receptions) was LT, but QB Rivers' play in the 2nd half was most encouraging for the Bolts offense.

11. (12) Minnesota - Young guns QB Tarvaris Jackson (40-61-502, 4 TDs, 1 INT in the past three games), RB Chester Taylor (8-101, 12.6 yards per carry, 1 TD versus the 49ers) and LB Chad Greenway (8-plus tackles in five games in '07) have been outstanding for the Vikings.

12. (7) Tampa - Although Luke McCown again showed he is a more than capable backup, veteran Jeff Garcia will start this week versus the Falcons. RB Earnest Graham has been very impressive, particularly as a red-zone runner for the Bucs.

13. (14) Buffalo - Trent Edwards, the steal of the 2007 NFL Draft threw 4 TD passes last week and is 5-1 as a starter for the surging Bills. How about RB Fred Jackson (15-115-7.7 yards per carry) from mighty Coe College in his work versus the Dolphins?

14. (15) Washington - Losing Jason Campbell for the remainder of the season with NFC Conference games versus three of the league's hottest clubs (Giants, Vikings, and Cowboys) offers little encouragement for a winning season in '07.

15. (17) Tennessee - Last week's 4th period collapse versus the Chargers was devastating and will likely require the club to run the table if they are to have any real chance to secure a AFC playoff birth.

16. (19) Denver - Far and away the top QB prospect from the 2006 NFL Draft, Jay Cutler threw 4 TD passes last week versus the Chiefs while Brandon Marshall (a T.O. clone) is a future star in the league. (Are you listening in St. Louis?)

17. (13) Arizona - Just when you think the Cardinals are on the verge of taking that next step in their development, they take two steps backwards. Five picks and five sacks are not going to get it done.

18. (16) Philadelphia - The Eagles came within inches of sending this one into overtime. Donavan McNabb, likely in his final season with Philadelphia was impressive on the opening drive, but struggled to move the ball in critical situations.

19. (23) New Orleans - Drew Brees and the Mutt & Jeff receiving tandem of Colston and Patten helped the Saints keep their faint playoff hopes alive with a resounding victory over the critically undermanned Falcons.

20. (21) Detroit - I love the coaching staff and believe the team has made some positive strides in 2007, but last week's last-second loss to the Cowboys was reminiscent of too many recent Lions failures.

21. (18) Chicago - From best to worst in the NFC North in just one season. Shocking for many loyal Bears fans, but rather commonplace when one looks at the recent history of NFL Super Bowl runner-ups in the following season.

22. (20) Carolina - Vinny Testaverde has had a long, distinguished career, but the game is over. John Fox is one of the league's best, but when Jake Delhomme was injured in Week 3, the season was essentially over.

23. (22) Houston - After failing in stints with both the Redskins and the Dolphins, career backup Sage Rosenfels has impressed in relief of Matt Schaub by throwing 3 TDs while completing 75 percent of his 36 passes.

24. (24) Cincinnati - Carson Palmer, one of the best young signal callers in the league has struggled as of late, a fact that does not bode well for the struggling, underachieving Bengals for the remainder of the '07 season.

25. (25) Baltimore - An offensive staff consisting of Sid Gilman, Bill Walsh, Ted Marchibroda, Tom Landry and Don Coryell couldn't get this offense going given the current quarterback situation.

26. (26) St Louis - If I had known sooner who was going to be leading the Rams into battle last week versus the Bengals and was a betting man, I might very well have been able to retire my current 30-year mortgage.

27. (27) NY Jets - Last year's "boy wonder" and his staff will be hard-pressed to return for his third season. Woody, it's very simple; you need football people and not bean-counters making critical decisions on personnel.

28. (28) Kansas City - The Chiefs were thoroughly thumped last weekend at home by division rival Denver. Expect numerous changes on both sides of the football and most importantly a new person at the quarterback position.

29. (29) Oakland - The Raiders defense hung in there early, but were essentially no match for the Packers on the road. Both journeymen QBs -- McCown and Walters -- struggled to move the football through the air.

30. (28) Atlanta - Arthur Blank announced during the Monday night telecast that he expects the Falcons to contend in 2008. Yeah, and I expect to be the Red Sox's left-handed setup man when the season opens in April.

31. (31) San Francisco - I really feel sorry for Coach Nolan and some of the truly best front-office people in the league, but after just three seasons I would have to say the club has no chance of winning with Alex Smith under the center.

32. (32) Miami - I'm just as sure the Dolphins are the worst team in the league as I am that the Patriots are the league's best. One year out of the game, expect the name Parcells to surface in South Florida this coming offseason.

09/12/07

Ravens hope to apply pressure to Patriots

By Len Pasquarelli
ESPN.com

This season, Patriots quarterback Tom Brady basically has operated in a protective cocoon, his offensive line having surrendered just 13 sacks, the second fewest in the league. Three of those sacks, though, came in Week 12 against the Eagles, who drew closer than anyone else has to beating New England.

Philadelphia defensive coordinator Jim Johnson was typically masterful in varying his fronts, often using only three down linemen and three linebackers, and bringing pressure from up the middle. The Eagles didn't sell out to the rush as often as they have in past seasons, and they rarely rushed six defenders, but they did change up their rush angles and coverages deftly.

Is that a template the Baltimore Ravens will follow Monday night?

"I don't know; you'd have to talk to those teams," Patriots coach Bill Belichick told the New England media earlier this week. "I don't know what they're going to do. All I know is what we're going to try to do, and that's prepare for Baltimore, study them, get to know them. It's a team we haven't played in a while."

No one should expect defensive coordinator Rex Ryan and the Ravens, who reside in last place in the AFC North, to play many three-man fronts, but they are almost certain to unveil a few new wrinkles. Ranked just 15th in the league versus the pass, Baltimore seems particularly challenged by the prospect of facing the top-rated New England aerial circus.

The Ravens, who have lost five straight games for the first time since Art Modell relocated the franchise in 1996, aren't going to be able to salvage their season. But a veteran defense that features emotional players such as middle linebacker Ray Lewis, outside linebacker Bart Scott, cornerbacks Samari Rolle and Chris McAlister, and free safety Ed Reed would take some pleasure in upending the undefeated Patriots.

"Our guys are going to play fast, furious and with a lot of emotion," Ryan said. "We're coming with all we have, and if the Patriots are expecting less of a game from us, they're sadly mistaken. It's going to be a great challenge for us. But we're going to make sure that it's going to be a great challenge for them, too."

Not many people outside the Ravens' locker room expect the game to be close, though.

According to The Baltimore Sun, the Ravens are the biggest home underdogs in modern NFL history, with oddsmakers setting the national betting line between the teams at 20 points. Not since 1974, The Sun noted, has a 20-point underdog won a game outright.

"You read all their press clippings, and look at the big numbers they've put up, and it really is amazing," Rolle said. "They're on a roll, the likes of which hasn't been seen in this league in a long, long time. Maybe ever.

"I mean, everyone brings up how well Philadelphia played them last week. But, hey, the Patriots still hung 31 [points] on them. But you know what? We're professional football players here, too, and we think that we know how to play the game. We're not just going to roll over like dogs."

Although it's unlikely the Ravens have paid much attention to the betting line, they know that to become the first team in 2007 to defeat the powerful Patriots certainly will take the best effort of the season from their defensive line. And that probably will mean exerting the kind of pressure on the pocket that the Baltimore defense -- statistically the best in the NFL in 2006, when the Ravens were 13-3 -- brought in nearly every contest last year.

Such pass-rush heat has been lacking this season, however. Although Ryan hasn't changed the scheme, the results have been dramatically different. Baltimore posted 60 sacks in 2006, and seven players had at least three quarterback knockdowns apiece. Through the first 11 games of 2007, the Ravens have just 22 sacks, and right end Terrell Suggs, with four, is the lone defender with more than two sacks.

One can attribute some of the pass-rush deficiency to the injuries that knocked left end Trevor Pryce out of the lineup and eventually to season-ending injured reserve. And the Ravens lost Pro Bowl linebacker Adalius Thomas to the Patriots as an unrestricted free agent in the spring. The pair combined for two dozen sacks in 2006, and the Ravens have struggled to compensate for their absences.

Yet in the past, the creative Ryan -- son of legendary Buddy Ryan, who always believed you had to do whatever it took to hit the quarterback -- always has conjured up ways to produce pressure, even when he didn't have the best players. This season, however, the overload fronts and rush packages that brought blitzers from every angle imaginable haven't produced the kind of results to which the prideful Baltimore defense is accustomed. The team also has played from behind for much of 2007, allowing opponents to run the ball more and reducing Baltimore's pass-rush opportunities.

None of which will stop Ryan, or a Ravens' defense that still features six veterans who have played in at least one Pro Bowl, from trying to attack Brady.

Senior writer Len Pasquarelli covers the NFL for ESPN.com.

04/11/07

Odds are with dominant Patriots

06:18 PM CDT on Tuesday, October 30, 2007

The New England Patriots may or may not be the greatest football team ever assembled. But the oddsmakers are certainly showering that respect on them.

Here's a primer on betting lines: The oddsmakers establish a point spread for every NFL game that theoretically would make that game a tossup.

For instance, the Cleveland Browns were established as a 3-point favorite at St. Louis last weekend against the winless Rams. So for betting purposes, the Rams were leading 3-0 before the opening kickoff. The Browns would have to win the game by more than three points to cover the point spread. They did, prevailing 27-20.

Parity has made the NFL a field-goal league. Forty-two percent of the 116 NFL games played thus far have carried point spreads of three points or less. Only 28 teams have been favored by as much as a touchdown this season.

There are 256 games in an NFL season. In 2003, the largest betting line in any one game was 14 points. In 2005, there were only three teams favored to win by as many as 16 points (Indianapolis twice, Seattle once). In 2006, there were just two (Chicago and Indianapolis, once apiece).

Which brings us back to the 2007 Patriots. They have played eight games thus far and have been established as a 16 1/2-point favorite in half of them. New England has covered the point spread each time - thus, winning by at least 16 1/2 points.

Not only are the Patriots 8-0 against the NFL this season, they are 8-0 against the point spread. New England has become a betting juggernaut. Here's a look at how the Patriots have fared against the betting line this season:

The Patriots are on a pace to score an NFL-record 662 points this season. The 1998 Minnesota Vikings set the record with 556 points in 1998. The Vikings were favored by 10 or more points only six times that season - and never by more than 16 in any game.

The 2000 Rams were the highest-scoring team of this decade and the third-highest scoring team of all-time with 540 points. Yet the Rams were favored by 10 or more points only five times. St. Louis was favored by 18 in a game against Atlanta and 17 in another game against San Diego.

The Patriots have four home games remaining: Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Miami and the New York Jets. They likely will be favored by at least 10 points in all four of them. New England also plays a November game at Buffalo.

That's a minimum of five more games the Patriots should be double-digit favorites. That would be nine on the year - more than half of New England's games. The Patriots may or may not win the Super Bowl in 2007. But they are already in the gambling Hall of Fame.

Now, let's take a gander at the league as we approach the season's midway point. Another bad week for the NFC as three playoff contenders - Carolina, Tampa Bay and Washington - were crushed Sunday by a combined score of 107-37 by three AFC contenders (Indianapolis, Jacksonville and New England).

29/10/07

Semi-pro football: Oostburg Rebels' season concludes

Posted October 28, 2007

Sheboygan Press staff

The Oostburg Rebels' quest for a fourth championship in five years came to an end Saturday afternoon with a 21-7 loss to the Fox Valley Force in a Wisconsin State Football League semifinal game.

"We play as a team, we win as a team and we lose as a team," defensive David Benton said after the emotional loss.

Rebels leading rusher Justin Zehel was held to 39 yards on 23 carries, but had Oostburg's lone touchdown. He also had a halfback pass to quarterback Josh Bardon.

"It was a rough game; they were stuffing the holes and sending the linebackers on every play," receiver/safety Jamil Moore said about the offense being stuck in neutral. "We couldn't get all the runs we should have gotten off."

Oostburg's defense had three sacks.

"We had a good season, despite of a lot of injuries," general manager Rick Hartman said about the Rebels' season.

"We did real well as a team. Giving up big plays hurt us all year. And we're hoping that most of the guys will come back next year."

sheboygan-press.com is a Gannett Company website.

16/10/07

Chargers have some down linemen

Posted by: Chris Cluff on October 15, 2007 8:36 PM

Jamal Williams, San Diego's All-Pro defensive tackle, had arthroscopic surgery on both knees Monday, but the Chargers hope he will be able to return after their bye this week. Also, center Nick Hardwick has a sprained foot and could miss 3-4 weeks. Results from an MRI were not available.

Commentary: Don't count on Williams returning in two weeks after having surgery on BOTH knees. And that will impact the defense's ability to stop the run. If Hardwick is out, Cory Withrow will start. Coach Norv Turner said Withrow played well in San Diego's win over Oakland on Sunday. Hardwick was hurt on the Chargers' seventh play, and LaDainian Tomlinson ended up running for 198 yards and four touchdowns.

Fantasy Football Impact: It looks like the offense should be fine without Hardwick, but if Williams is out, the defense will suffer some.